AS 1174 · LIH → HNL

departs 8:45 PM HT · arrives 9:23 PM HT

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 AM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±4 pts +14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.7 in of rain forecast at LIH that day

↑ 0.4 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↓ 8pm departures from LIH are usually not late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LIH (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.71 in

HNL (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.38 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1174 · LIH → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?