Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1174 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AS 1174 · LIH → HNL

departs 8:45 PM HT · arrives 9:23 PM HT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±4 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at LIH that day

↑ Other factors

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↓ 8pm departures from LIH are usually not late

↓ LIH usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

LIH (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.90 in

HNL (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.31 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1174 · LIH → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?