AS 122 · HNL → SEA

departs 9:20 PM HT · arrives 5:59 AM PT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

40% chance · ±0 pts +15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 2 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at SEA that day

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.30 in

SEA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 122 · HNL → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?