Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1301 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, September 30 Today

AS 1301 · LAX → SEA

departs 6:15 PM PT · arrives 9:02 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±0 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ 6pm departures from LAX are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at SEA that day

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1301 · LAX → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?