Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1301 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AS 1301 · LAX → SEA

departs 6:09 PM PT · arrives 8:56 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 35h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ 6pm departures from LAX are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at LAX that day

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1301 · LAX → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?