Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1381 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, September 30 Tomorrow

AS 1381 · SAN → SEA

departs 3:16 PM PT · arrives 6:14 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±2 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from SAN are often late

↑ This flight has been late 38% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at SAN that day

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1381 · SAN → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?