Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1381 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

AS 1381 · SAN → SEA

departs 3:16 PM PT · arrives 6:14 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from SAN are often late

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at SAN that day

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling3,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1381 · SAN → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?