AS 1447 · ORD → SAN

departs 2:20 PM CT · arrives 4:59 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±3 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 2pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at SAN that day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.55 in

SAN (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1447 · ORD → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?