Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1447 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AS 1447 · ORD → SAN

departs 2:20 PM CT · arrives 4:59 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 61h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±5 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at SAN that day

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling3,667 ft Visibility8.66667 mi Precip0.39 in

SAN (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1447 · ORD → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?