Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1523 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, September 30 Tomorrow

AS 1523 · SFO → LAX

departs 4:30 PM PT · arrives 6:06 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 26h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±6 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↑ 4pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at SFO that day

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1523 · SFO → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?