Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1523 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

AS 1523 · SFO → LAX

departs 4:30 PM PT · arrives 6:06 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±3 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↑ 4pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at SFO that day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1523 · SFO → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?