Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1525 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, September 30 Today

AS 1525 · PDX → MCI

departs 11:30 AM PT · arrives 4:53 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MCI?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at MCI that day

↑ Arrivals into MCI at that hour are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCI (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.34 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1525 · PDX → MCI

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCI?