Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1525 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AS 1525 · PDX → MCI

departs 11:30 AM PT · arrives 4:53 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 7:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±3 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCI?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, 1.7 in of rain forecast at MCI that day

↑ Other factors

↑ 11am departures from PDX are often late

↓ MCI usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCI (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.67 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1525 · PDX → MCI

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCI?