Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1558 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, September 30 Tomorrow

AS 1558 · ANC → ADK

departs 12:09 PM AKT · arrives 2:19 PM HDT

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at ADK more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±4 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ADK?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 28 kt, cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at ADK that day

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at ANC that day

↓ Arrivals into ADK at that hour are usually not late

↓ ADK usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ANC (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.06 in

ADK (destination) Gusts28 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0 mi Precip0.30 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1558 · ANC → ADK

Odds over time

How late will it get to ADK?