Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1604 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, September 30 Today

AS 1604 · SFO → LAX

departs 1:51 PM PT · arrives 3:22 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 11h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±3 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at SFO that day

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1604 · SFO → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?