Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1604 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AS 1604 · SFO → LAX

departs 1:51 PM PT · arrives 3:22 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 26h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

40% chance · ±6 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↓ Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at LAX that day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1604 · SFO → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?