Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1621 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, September 30 Today

AS 1621 · SAN → SMF

departs 9:47 PM PT · arrives 11:32 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±0 pts +18 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
33%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↑ 9pm departures from SAN are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1621 · SAN → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?