Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1633 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, September 30 Today

AS 1633 · SJC → PDX

departs 2:31 PM PT · arrives 4:15 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PDX?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from SJC are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into PDX at that hour are often late

↓ This flight has been late 16% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SJC (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PDX (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1633 · SJC → PDX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PDX?