Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1633 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AS 1633 · SJC → PDX

departs 2:31 PM PT · arrives 4:15 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 32h before departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PDX?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from SJC are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ This flight has been late 14% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

Weather at each end

SJC (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

PDX (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1633 · SJC → PDX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PDX?