Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1638 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, September 30 Today

AS 1638 · TPA → SAN

departs 5:32 PM ET · arrives 7:24 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

43% chance · ±0 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↑ 5pm departures from TPA are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at SAN that day

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.09 in

SAN (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1638 · TPA → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?