Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1638 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AS 1638 · TPA → SAN

departs 5:32 PM ET · arrives 7:24 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 26h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

49% chance · ±5 pts +12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ 5pm departures from TPA are often late

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at SAN that day

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.45 in

SAN (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1638 · TPA → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?