AS 220 · SAN → LIH

took off 8:22 AM PT · landed 11:06 AM HT (scheduled 8:05 AM PT → 11:28 AM HT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at LIH more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to LIH?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 34 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 2.6 in of rain forecast at LIH that day

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 19% of the time recently

↓ Arrivals into LIH at that hour are usually not late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

LIH (destination) Gusts34 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip1.89 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 220 · SAN → LIH

Odds over time

How late did it get to LIH?