Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 227 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, September 30 Tomorrow

AS 227 · JFK → SFO

departs 9:30 AM ET · arrives 12:52 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±2 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ 9am departures from JFK are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 227 · JFK → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?