Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 22 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, September 30 Tomorrow

AS 22 · SEA → JFK

departs 11:15 PM PT · arrives 7:38 AM ET

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 26h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±2 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at SEA that day

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 22 · SEA → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?