Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 2611 LANDED 5:50 PM ET, ~6 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

AS 2611 · SMF → CVG

took off 11:03 AM PT · landed 5:50 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into CVG at that hour are often late

↑ SMF is busy at that time

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CVG (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 2611 · SMF → CVG

Odds over time