Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 2623 LANDED 2:25 AM PT, ~1 MIN EARLY · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

AS 2623 · CVG → SMF

took off 1:07 AM ET · landed 2:25 AM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 21h after departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

6% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↑ This route's recent record

↑ SMF is prone to delays

↓ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

CVG (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 2623 · CVG → SMF

Odds over time