Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 285 LANDED 12:59 PM PT, ~21 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

AS 285 · FAI → SEA

took off 8:50 AM AKT · landed 12:59 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ 8am departures from FAI are usually not late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

FAI (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling3,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 285 · FAI → SEA

Odds over time