AS 341 · SEA → DFW

departs 10:59 AM PT · arrives 5:00 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±9 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
27%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ Gusts to 31 kt forecast at DFW that day

↑ 10am departures from SEA are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.01 in

DFW (destination) Gusts31 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.12 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 341 · SEA → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?