Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 341 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

AS 341 · SEA → DFW

departs 10:59 AM PT · arrives 5:00 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

60% chance · ±5 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
38%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, 1.9 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling3,900 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip1.93 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 341 · SEA → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?