AS 3 · DCA → SEA

departs 5:00 PM ET · arrives 7:59 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 25h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 3 · DCA → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?