AS 404 · KOA → SFO

departs 3:40 PM HT · arrives 11:48 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±1 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ KOA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

KOA (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 404 · KOA → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?