Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 404 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AS 404 · KOA → SFO

departs 3:40 PM HT · arrives 11:48 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at SFO that day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

KOA (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling4,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 404 · KOA → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?