Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 422 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

AS 422 · SEA → AUS

departs 9:05 AM PT · arrives 3:14 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at AUS that day

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↓ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at SEA that day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.14 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 422 · SEA → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?