AS 429 · SEA → ORD

departs 10:29 AM PT · arrives 4:44 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 12h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±1 pts +19 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
20%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 38% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.55 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 429 · SEA → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?