Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 429 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AS 429 · SEA → ORD

departs 10:29 AM PT · arrives 4:44 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±8 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
25%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.5 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.48 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 429 · SEA → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?