AS 480 · OGG → PDX

took off 11:32 AM HT · expected to land 7:16 PM PT (scheduled 11:23 AM HT → 7:42 PM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 7:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PDX?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ OGG is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into PDX at that hour are often late

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

Weather at each end

OGG (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

PDX (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 480 · OGG → PDX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PDX?