AS 538 · SEA → ORD

departs 5:48 PM PT · arrives 11:59 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±3 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ 5pm departures from SEA are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.55 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 538 · SEA → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?