Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 538 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

AS 538 · SEA → ORD

departs 5:48 PM PT · arrives 11:59 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±3 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.5 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ 5pm departures from SEA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling3,400 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.48 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 538 · SEA → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?