AS 602 · SEA → DEN

departs 2:23 PM PT · arrives 5:58 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

43% chance · ±0 pts −15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling3,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 602 · SEA → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?