Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 602 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AS 602 · SEA → DEN

departs 4:26 PM PT · arrives 8:10 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 33h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±4 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 4pm departures from SEA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 602 · SEA → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?