AS 612 · SEA → LAS

departs 10:50 AM PT · arrives 1:12 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±5 pts +14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from SEA are often late

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling11,667 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 612 · SEA → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?