AS 776 · SFO → LAS

departs 1:59 PM PT · arrives 3:39 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 25h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±4 pts +17 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 776 · SFO → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?