Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 776 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

AS 776 · SFO → LAS

departs 3:52 PM PT · arrives 5:33 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±1 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ This flight has been late 36% of the time recently

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at SFO that day

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 776 · SFO → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?