AS 830 · HNL → JFK

departs 3:09 PM HT · arrives 6:55 AM ET

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.4 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↑ 3pm departures from HNL are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.38 in

JFK (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 830 · HNL → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?