Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 830 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

AS 830 · HNL → JFK

departs 3:09 PM HT · arrives 6:55 AM ET

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ 3pm departures from HNL are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.27 in

JFK (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 830 · HNL → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?