Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 843 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, September 30 Today

AS 843 · SFO → HNL

departs 7:42 PM PT · arrives 10:11 PM HT

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±1 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.4 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 18% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at SFO that day

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

HNL (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.43 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 843 · SFO → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?