Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 843 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

AS 843 · SFO → HNL

departs 7:42 PM PT · arrives 10:11 PM HT

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at SFO that day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

HNL (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.27 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 843 · SFO → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?