AS 853 · SJC → HNL

took off 7:48 AM PT · expected to land 9:42 AM HT (scheduled 7:03 AM PT → 9:32 AM HT)

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

57% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to HNL?

LIVE

On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
48%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 2.5 mi, 1.4 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ SJC is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC

↓ 7am departures from SJC are usually not late

Weather at each end

SJC (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

HNL (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip1.40 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 853 · SJC → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?