AS 853 · SJC → HNL

departs 7:02 AM PT · arrives 9:28 AM HT

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL

↑ SJC is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 7am departures from SJC are usually not late

Weather at each end

SJC (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

HNL (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.19 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 853 · SJC → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?