AS 87 · SCC → ANC

departs 6:15 PM AKT · arrives 8:04 PM AKT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at ANC more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ANC?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at SCC that day

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at ANC that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ ANC usually runs smoothly

↓ 6pm departures from SCC are usually not late

Weather at each end

SCC (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.08 in

ANC (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.53 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 87 · SCC → ANC

Odds over time

How late will it get to ANC?